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Forecaster intervention with the ENS
It is often taken for granted that forecasters cannot improve on the ENS. But forecasters can manually intervene by using their experience for a certain location.. They can be guided by verification of previous events to correct tendencies of the ENS to over- or under-forecast probabilities. These modifications are often appropriate at coastal locations or in mountainous regions. This is because local effects may be significant and/or the grid point nearest to the location that is used for the meteogram may not be typical nor appropriate.
Taking account of other state-of-the-art NWP models - Grand and Lagged Ensembles
Ensemble forecasts give the most consistent guidance. One should not rely on any individual result.
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