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Anomaly Correlation Coefficient

ECMWF primary headline score for HRES

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High ACC indicates good effectiveness of the model.   

Continuous ranked probability score (CRPS)

ECMWF primary headline score for medium range

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• CRPSS = 1 the forecast has perfect skill compared to climatology;
• CRPSS = 0 the forecast has no skill compared to climatology;
• CRPSS = a negative value the forecast is less accurate than climatology

Discrete Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS-D)

ECMWF Primary headline score for extended range

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• RPSS = 1 the forecast has perfect skill compared to the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast beneficial;
• RPSS = 0 the forecast has no skill compared to the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast has no benefit over climatology;
• RPSS = a negative value the forecast is less accurate than the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast misleading.

Stable equity error in probability space (1-SEEPS)  

ECMWF supplementary headline score

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This score for the extra-tropics is a supplementary headline score for the ECMWF HRES.

EFI ROC skill (10m wind at day4)

ECMWF supplementary headline score

Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is verified against analysis where an extreme event is taken as an observation exceeding 95th percentile of station climate.

Fraction of large CRPS (2m temperature)

ECMWF complementary headline score

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