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ENS Products - Dealing with Uncertainty
The philosophy of ensemble forecasting is to capture possible outcomes rather than a single definitive answer. Thus some variability in a sequence of NWP model forecasts is to be expected. Every new forecast run is, on average, better than the previous one - but it is also different. New observations modify previous analyses of the atmospheric state. Therefore forecasts generated from these new analyses evolve and develop differently to earlier results. Usually the differences in the forecasts are no more than moderate, but occasionally differences can be quite large. These may appear as a significant forecast jump in evolution of the atmosphere (e.g. developing a more mobile or amplified upper trough or a significant increase in modelled cloud cover). This has a consequent effect on forecast values.
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