Page History

Considerations when interpreting model output

IFS forecasts are true to the physical representation and parameterisation of the atmosphere and its processes within the IFS programs and systems.  However, they are dependent upon good reliable data and can deviate from reality through amplification of errors on different scales as the forecast progresses.  Capturing possible error-growth scenarios is a strength of the ensemble approach and uncertainty can be assessed by using ensemble products.  However, the more detailed structure of the atmosphere, particularly in the lower layers, requires assessment by forecasters to establish the representativeness of output against reality, and forecasters need also to understand the derivation of products and their possible consequent shortcomings.

...