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Extended-Range Forecast
The extended range (monthly) forecasts provide a range of possible future weather states in the extended range. It bridges the gap between medium-range and seasonal forecasting.
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The medium range and extended range models have the same structure and physics etc. but different spacial (but not vertical) resolutions and differing land-sea masks and orography. Users should be aware that the output is effectively from different models. This is especially important when generating a time-series that crosses the boundary between the end of the ensemble 15 day forecast and the start of the extended range. Users need to develop interpolation procedures that take these changes into account.
Extended Range Products
The extended range output is available on the ECMWF web charts and ecCharts. Guidance on the Interpretation of the extended range products is discussed elsewhere in the guide.
Specialised Products
Specialised products for the Extended Range include information on potential tropical cyclone activity and evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is characterized by an eastward propagation of an area of more organised convection in the tropics, typically initiated over the Indian Ocean and is important as it can influence developments elsewhere on the globe:
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The MJO has an influence on the forecast skill over the extra-tropics and MJO predictions are skilful well beyond Day20.. Typically the forecast reliability is enhanced when an MJO event is detected in the forecast initial conditions.
Additional Sources of Information
(Note: In older material there may be references to issues that have subsequently been addressed)
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