Page History
...
Systematic errors due to model deficiencies and/or observational representativeness can be partly corrected by statistical means (e.g. Model output statistics MOS). A series of forecasts will also help in dealing with uncertainty.
Non-systematic synoptic errors can be dampened by different ensemble approaches (e.g. medium range ensemble, probability considerations, forecast error growth). However, sub-grid variability (notably for rainfall but other parameters too) can be addressed through downscaling. Downscaling converts the grid box area average probability density functions from the raw ENS into "point rainfall probability density functions" for points within each grid box.
New downscaling techniques are being developed accordingly (see for example the Point Rainfall product).
Overview
Community Forums
Content Tools