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1 year of global verification of 12h point rainfall products indicates that when compared to point observations, and relative to raw ENS forecasts, the point rainfall forecasts are much more reliable, and have a much better discrimination ability. The net frequency of point observations of no (measurable) rain is much higher in reality than it is in raw ENS gridbox forecasts, whereas the net frequency in point rainfall forecasts is almost perfect, as shown by the verification reliability metric. Meanwhile large totals, such as 50mm/12h, are much better delineated by the point rainfall; using the ROC area metric day 10 forecasts in the point rainfall are as good as day 1-2 forecasts from the raw ENS for this threshold.
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Future products may address items 3 and 4, and include a cdf comparison option.
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Upgrades to ecPoint
From the 12UTC ensemble runs on Monday 23rd May 2022 onwards the post-processing algorithm differs in the following three ways:
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