Page History
Table of Contents
Broad Guidelines
Broad guidelines for interpretation of a series of forecast results
On average, the best practise advice is:
...
This maintains user confidence while retaining forecaster integrity.
Do the opposite to the computer!
General advice could be summarized in a rather unexpected manner; weather forecasters should not try to “compete” with the NWP output on its own terms, but rather do the opposite. The ensemble control or any one of the ensemble members could be thought of as being deterministic, but it the strength of the ensemble that all members are equally probable and it is the derived probability products which are best able to give a good forecast. The shortcomings of using "deterministic" output are:
...
Overview
Community Forums
Content Tools