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Fig4.1-3: A sequence of Mean Sea Level Pressure forecast charts ranging from T+156 to T+96, all verify at 00UTC 24 October 2022.  The forecast details differ between the forecasts but large-scale systems (a low near Ireland, a high over central Europe, a trough towards the southern Baltic) are common features.  The T+156 predicted gales over southern and northwest France.  It would have been unwise to make such a detailed interpretation of the forecast, considering the typical skill at that range.  Only a statement of windy, unsettled and cyclonic conditions would have been justified.  Such a cautious interpretation would have avoided any embarrassing forecast “jump”, when the subsequent T+144 and T+132 runs showed a weaker circulation.  The same cautious approach would have minimized the forecast “jump” with the arrival of the T+108 forecast.

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