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However, what the perturbed forecasts may lack in individual skill, they compensate for by their large number, their ability to form good median or ensemble mean values and reliable probability estimations.  The information from all the members in the ensemble should be used.  The low proportion of perturbed forecast members “better” than the control in the short range makes the task of trying to select the ensemble member with the best subsequent forecast very difficult and, perhaps, impossible.  There are no known methods to identify beforehand the “best” ensemble member beyond the first day or so (not least due to the effects of downstream spread of errors).

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