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Fig8.1.9.6-2: As Fig8.1.9.6-1 but with HRES precipitation totals over 9hrs added: purple > 10mm.  In practice, the fact that there is precipitation indicates sufficient availability of moisture while the very high EFI indicates that unusual (i.e. climatologically high as defined by M-climate) convective available potential energy (CAPE) is available in the north Germany area.  Precipitation totals in the very active storms that are likely to form will be greater than ENS or HRES show (here HRES precipitation) and with associated significant downdraught gusts.

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Fig8.1.9.6-4: CAPE-shear EFI, data time 00UTC 22 June 2017, valid for 00-24UTC 22 June 2013 (as on Fig8.1.9.6-3).  EFI colours orange and red taken as indicating an extreme event likely.  SOT values indicate the ratio of departures of ENS forecast values from the M-climate extreme considering the greatest 10% ENS members.  The other charts show CAPE-shear values in the M-climate (derived on 19 June 2017) wherein only 1 in 10 occasions (central chart) and only 1 in 100 occasions realises more than the values shown.  The existence of significant EFI and SOT, even some days in advance, should not be overlooked, particularly if the actual forecast CAPE-shear values are much greater than the M-climate values (at say the 90th or 99th percentiles) for the area.

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Fig8.1.9.6-14:  15day meteogram with M-climate for 45N06E based on ENS data time 00UTC 6 August 2017.  An exceptional event is forecast for 8 Aug; the median lies above the 99th percentile of M-climate (green line).

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Fig8.1.9.6-15: CDF and associated EFI for west Alps region (45N06E).  Forecasts with a data time of 00UTC 6th, as on the other plots above, are denoted by the darkest of the two dashed blue lines.  There is a consistently high EFI for rainfall (over 80%) which is sufficient for forecasting a significant and maybe an extreme rainfall event.  Some ENS members show rainfall totals close to the M-climate maxima.  The slope of the precipitation CDF shows the variation within ENS members, but all members show greater than M-climate values.  For greater confidence the slope of the CDF should be more vertical.

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