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Fig8.1.9.6-2: As Fig8.1.9.6-1 but with HRES precipitation totals over 9hrs added: purple > 10mm.  In practice, the fact that there is precipitation indicates sufficient availability of moisture while the very high EFI indicates that unusual (i.e. climatologically high as defined by M-climate) convective available potential energy (CAPE) is available in the north Germany area.  Precipitation totals in the very active storms that are likely to form will be greater than ENS or HRES show (here HRES precipitation) and with associated significant downdraught gusts.


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Fig8.1.9.6-3: CAPE-shear EFI from a sequence of forecasts data times 00UTC on 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 June 2017.  Note the increasing Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and the Shift of Tails (SOT) above 0 and reaching above 1 at T+24 on the last forecast over North Germany and Poland. 

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