...
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation (19 October 00UTC - 20 October 00UTC) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (19 October 00UTC - 20 October 00UTC) a 0.5x0.5 box around Angus, Scotland (centred on 56.9N, 2.9W). Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts. One can see a sharp increase in signal on 14 October.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
...