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High ACC indicates good effectiveness of the model.
Current Anomaly Correlation Coefficient diagram.
Continuous ranked probability score (CRPS)
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- CRPSS = 1 the forecast has perfect skill compared to climatology;.
- CRPSS = 0 the forecast has no skill compared to climatology;.
- CRPSS = a negative value the forecast is less accurate than climatology.
Discrete Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS-D)
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- RPSS = 1 the forecast has perfect skill compared to the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast beneficial;
- RPSS = 0 the forecast has no skill compared to the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast has no benefit over climatology;
- RPSS = a negative value the forecast is less accurate than the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast misleading.
Stable equity error in probability space (1-SEEPS)
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This score for the extra-tropics is a supplementary headline score for the ECMWF HRES.
EFI ROC skill (10m wind at day4)
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Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is verified against analysis where an extreme event is taken as an observation exceeding 95th percentile of station climate.
Current EFI ROC skill diagram.
Fraction of large CRPS (2m temperature)
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The CRPS for the forecast temperature is calculated comparing the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF) for the forecast temperature against observations (or analyses) of temperature over a given period and here has the dimensions of temperature.
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