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Some statistical concepts are outlined to facilitate the use and interpretation of deterministic medium-range forecasts.  An NWP system can be evaluated in at least two ways.  :

• Validation measures the realism of the model with respect to its ability to simulate the

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• behaviour of the atmosphere.
• Verification measures the system’’s ability to predict atmospheric states.

Only the most commonly used validation and verification methods will be are discussed here, mainly with respect to upper air variables, 2 m temperature and , 10 m wind and upper air variables.   Verification of binary forecasts will be are discussed in relation to utility.

For a full presentation the reader is referred to see Nurmi 2003; Joliffe and Stephenson, 2003; Wilks, 2006.

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