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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The plots below show the observation statistics (first guess and analysis departures) from the surface DA for 2-metre temperature for Vidsel and Lulea-Kallax Airport.
3.2 HRES
The plots below show analysis of 3-day temperature 3-5 January and forecasts from 1 December from IFS with 9 km resolution the the DestinE run with 4.4 km resolution.
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The plots below show analysis of 3-day temperature 3-5 January and forecasts from 30 December from IFS (ENS control), and machine-learning forecasts from AIFS, PanguWeather and Graphcast. The box outlines a region between Vidsel and Alvsbyn.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day temperature 3-5 January.
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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