Page History
...
This does not look very impressive, rather the opposite, but, paradoxically, both Users X and Y benefit highly from this special service. This is because they are now free to interpret the forecasts in their own way. (see Fig12.A.20).
- User X,
...
- has low protection costs
...
- and can afford to interpret the "don't know” forecast as if it could rain and therefore
...
- decides to take protective action. By doing so, User X drastically lowers his costs to €10 per day
...
- . This is €20 cheaper than following
...
- the forecasts of Agency C.
- User Y,
...
- has expensive protection
...
- costs and will prefer to interpret "don't know” forecast as if there will be no rain and decides not to
...
- take protective action. By doing so, User Y lowers his costs to €26 per day
...
- . This is similar to following the forecasts of Agency B.
Fig12.A.20: The expected daily expenses when the end-users are free to interpret the "don't know” forecast either as "rain", if they have a low c/L ratio, or as "no rain", if their c/L ratio is high.
So what might appear as "cowardly" forecasts prove to be more valuable for the end-users! If If forecasters are uncertain, they should say so and thereby . In this way forecasters can gain respect and authority in the longer term.
...
Overview
Community Forums
Content Tools