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which can be written:

where:

  • Aa and Af are the atmospheric and model variability respectively around the climate

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  • cov refers to the covariance. 

Hence the level of forecast accuracy is determined not only by the predictive skill, as reflected in the covariance term, but also by the general variability of the atmosphere, expressed by Aa, and by how well the model simulates this, expressed by Af.

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