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1. Forecast system version
Identifier code: cwao_ CanESM5.1p1bc
First operational forecast run: 30 June 2024
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Greenhouse gases | CMIP6 historical (before 2014 inclusive); CMIP6SSP2-4.5 (2015 and after) as described in O'Neill et al. 2016 http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/ |
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Ozone | Temporally and spatially varying following Checa-Garcia et al., 2018 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL0767702018 |
Tropospheric aerosols | Parameterized using a prognostic scheme for bulk concentrations of natural and anthropogenic aerosols, including sulfate, black and organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust; parameterizations for emissions, transport, gas-phase and aqueous-phase chemistry; and dry and wet deposition accounting for interactions with simulated meteorology |
Volcanic aerosols | CMIP6 volcanic stratospheric aerosols according to Thomason et al. 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-469-20182018 |
Solar forcing | CMIP6 solar forcing according to Matthes et al. 2017 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/10/2247/2017/2017 |
Detailed documentation:
Checa-Garcia et al., 2018: Historical tropospheric and stratospheric ozone radiative forcing using the CMIP6 database. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 3264-3273, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076770
Matthes, K., et al. 2017: Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2). Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 2247–2302. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd‐10‐2247‐2017
O'Neill, B. C., et al. 2016: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3461–3482, http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/
Thomason, L. W., et al. 2018: A global space‐based stratospheric aerosol climatology: 1979–2016. Earth System Science Data, 10, 469–492. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd‐10‐469‐2018
4. Initialization and initial condition (IC) perturbations
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Horizontal and vertical resolution of perturbations:
Perturbations are primarily on spatial scales <1000 km, vertical structure not directly specified.
Perturbations in +/- pairs:
No, all perturbations represent random samples from a distribution.
Detailed documentation:
Merryfield, W. J., et al. 2013: The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: Models and initialization. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 2910–2945, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1
Sospedra-Alfonso, R., et al. 2024: Evaluation of soil moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System, Version 2.1 (CanSIPSv2.1). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 63, 143-164, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0034.1
Sospedra-Alfonso, R., et al. 2016: Representation of snow in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System: Part I. Initialization. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17, 1467–1488, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0223.1
4.2 Ocean and cryosphere
Hindcast | Forecast | |
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Ocean initialization |
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Ocean IC perturbations | Assimilation runs begun from different initial conditions | Assimilation runs begun from different initial conditions |
Unperturbed control forecast? | No | No |
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Dirkson, A., et al. 2017: Impacts of sea ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. Journal of Climate, 30, 1001–1017, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0437.1
Lin, H., et al. 2020: The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2). Weather and Forecasting, 35, 1317–1343, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0259.1
Sospedra-Alfonso, R., et al. 2021: Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5). Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 6863–6891, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021
5. Model Uncertainties perturbations:
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6. Forecast system and hindcasts
Forecast frequency | 12-month forecast is produced on the last day of each month |
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Forecast ensemble size | 20 (ensemble members 1-10 initialized at 00Z on last day of month, 11-20 at 00Z on 5th to last day of month) |
Hindcast years | 1980-2023 |
Hindcast ensemble size | 20 (ensemble members 1-10 initialized at 00Z on first day of month, 11-20 at 00Z on 5th to last day of previous month) |
On-the-fly or static hindcast set? | static |
Calibration (bias correction) period | 1991-2020 |
7. Other relevant information
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8. Where to find more information
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html
https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=seasonal-forecasts