Page History

...

Charts available are: 2m temperature, surface temperature, total precipitation, mean sea level pressure, winds.   Click on the central small icon in the bottom right of the web frame to show the colour scale of values appropriate to each display.

Colouring on the charts is implies >90% significance for the anomaly .  This does not mean the white from ER-M-Climat.  White shading on the maps necessarily points to:

...

only implies <90% significance of the anomaly.  It does not necessarily imply:

• a 'don't know' forecast of climatology.
• a forecast of average.

Further information can be gained by inspection of the Extended anomaly meteogram.  Click the mouse over any location on the ensemble charts to produce probability information in meteogram diagrammatic form.  Diagrams available:

• Extended anomaly meteogram.

Click on the central small icon in the bottom right of the web frame to show the colour scale of values appropriate to each display.

Probability that weekly mean anomaly from anomaly from model climate greater climate greater than zero

The weekly anomaly probability charts display the probability that the weekly mean anomalies are greater than zero.  The probability is calculated from the number of ensemble members which show an anomaly within the higher half of the the ER-M-climate distribution. 

...

Click on the central small icon in the bottom right of the web frame to show the colour scale of values appropriate to each display.

Any pixel that has high probability for lower (or upper) decile should have at least the same or higher probability for lower (upper) quintile and even higher for lower (upper) tercile.  On occasion this has not happened and is being investigated.

Multiparameter outlook - Extended range forecast

...

Click on the central small icon in the bottom right of the web frame to show the colour scale of values appropriate to each display.

Any pixel that has high probability for lower (or upper) decile should have at least the same or higher probability for lower (upper) quintile and even higher for the tercile. 

Measures of skill of forecasts. 

...