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Link: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/CKB/C3S+seasonal+forecasts+verification+plots Anomalies are computed for each year in the common hindcast period, for each seasonal forecast system and ERA5 data for verification. Tercile categories, and corresponding probabilities, are also computed, as described above for the graphical products. One-month and three-month aggregations are produced for each start month and lead-time(s) combination. The verification products available are:
The correlations are Spearman rank correlation coefficients computed using the ensemble mean anomalies and ERA5 data, with p-values computed to indicate where significance is below 95%. For the SST indices, area-averages in the regions are computed first, and these are used for the correlation calculation. Area under the ROC curve and RPS values are computed at each grid cell, for terciles categories, as described in the WMO forecast guidance. |