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Cyclone Niklas was the third cyclone over the last days in March, associated with a negative positive phase of NAO. The figures below show short forecasts (12h) of MSLP and precipitation. Niklas passed over northern Germany around 12z on 31 March.
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The next plot shows the probabilities of exceeding 10-year return period of maximum wind gusts. The top-left panel shows the verification based on ERA Interim.
As mentioned in Section 2, the windy days in the end of March were associated with a strong positive NAO. The figure below shows the distribution of projections onto the positive NAO regime, averaged over 29-31 March. The strong phase of the NAO was well predicted 6-7 days in advance and all issued forecasts (up to 15 days in advance) was for a positive NAO.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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