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Task 1: Forecast error

Root-mean square error curves are often used to determine forecast error compared to the analysis.

In this task, all 4 forecast dates will be used.

Using the oper_rmse.mv icon, right-click, select 'Edit' and plot the RMSE curves for MSLP (mean-sea-level pressure) & wgust10 (10m wind gust).

Repeat for both geographical regions: mapType=0 and mapType=1.

Q. What do the RMSE curves show?
Q. How do they vary according to lead-time?

Task 2: Compare forecast to analysis

a) Use the oper_to_an_runs.mv icon (right-click -> Edit) and plot the MSLP and wind fields. This shows a comparison of each of the forecasts to the analysis.

b) Use the oper_to_an_diff.mv icon and plot the difference map between a forecast date and the analysis.

Choose only one model run (lead-time) to look at (discuss with your team colleagues). If you want to change the default date, edit the following line:

#Model run
run=2013-10-24

Task 3: Team working

As a team, discuss the plots & parameters to address the questions above given what you see in the error growth curves and maps from task 2.

Look at the difference between forecast and analysis to understand the error in the forecast, particularly the starting formation and final error.

Team members can look at particular dates and choose particular variables for team discussion.

Remember to save (or print) plots of interest for later group discussion.