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Animate the plots in the display window by clicking 
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Some tasks will use all the lead times, others require only one.
Understand
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Available plot types
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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'Oper forecast' as shown above. oper_rmse.mv : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast for the different lead times.
oper_to_an_runs.mv : this plots the same parameter from the different forecasts for the same verifying time. Use this to understand how the forecasts differed, particularly for the later forecasts closer to the event. oper_to_an_diff.mv : this plots a single parameter as a difference between the operational HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors from the different lead times.
Parameters & map appearance. These macros have the same choice of parameters to plot and same choice of |
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Getting started
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Getting started
Task 1: Forecast error
Root-mean
Task 1: Forecast error
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square error curves are often used to determine forecast error compared to the analysis.
In this task, all 4 forecast dates will be used.
Using the oper_rmse.mv icon, right-click, select 'Edit' and plot the RMSE curves for MSLP (mean-sea-level pressure) & wgust10 (10m wind gust).
Repeat for both geographical regions: mapType=0 and mapType=1.
Q. What do the RMSE curves show?
Q. How do they vary according to lead-time?
Task 2: Compare forecast to analysis
a) Use the oper_to_an_runs.mv icon (right-click -> Edit) and plot the MSLP and wind fields. This shows a comparison of each of the forecasts to the analysis.
b) Use the oper_to_an_diff.mv icon and plot the difference map between a forecast date and the analysis.
Choose only one model run (lead-time) to look at (discuss with your team colleagues). If you want to change the default date, edit the following line:
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#Model run
run=2013-10-24 |
Task 3: Team working
As a team, discuss the plots & parameters to address the questions above given what you see in the error growth curves and maps from task 2.
Look at the difference between forecast and analysis to understand the error in the forecast, particularly the starting formation and final error.
Team members can
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limit to a certain date and choose particular
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parameters for team discussion.
Remember to save (or print) plots of interest for later group discussion.
Exercise 3 : The operational ensemble forecasts
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Understand
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THIS NEEDS IMPROVING
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Available plot types
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For these exercises please use the Metview icons in the row labelled 'ENS'. ens_rmse.mv : this is similar to the oper_rmse.mv in the previous exercise. It will plot the root-mean-square-error growth for the ensemble forecasts. ens_to_an.mv : this will plot (a) the mean of the ensemble forecast, (b) the ensemble spread, (c) the HRES deterministic forecast and (d) the analysis for the same date. stamp.mv : this plots all of the ensemble forecasts for a particular field and lead time. Each forecast is shown in a stamp sized map. Very useful for a quick visual inspection of the forecast. stamp_diff.mv : similar to stamp.mv except that for each forecast it plots a difference map from the analysis. |
Getting started
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Task 1: RMSE "plumes"
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