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NWP and Reality
Owing to the non-linear nature of the forecast system, output from NWP models does not behave in a simple or regular way. Errors can be due to:
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Finally, meteorological disturbances and the associated energy propagate downstream (downstream spread of influence). This occurs both within NWP models and in reality. Anomalies in the analysis affect forecasts well downstream during the forecast period. Some differences will perhaps weaken or amplify to yield some very incorrect results. Users need assess the development and progress of disturbances arising from observed data departing from background fields.
(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)
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