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Fig4.3-1:  Schematic illustration of the typical propagation of forecast errors over the northern hemisphere towards Europe in situations with generally zonal flow.  The errors propagate mainly along the storm track, which during the warm season, on average, is displaced polewards. Note however that in individual cases the propagation speed can vary greatly from what is shown here.  Effects of disturbances at low latitudes or of extra-tropical transition can move into the zonal westerlies (shown schematically by green arrows).



(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)