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Table of Contents

Remarks on the sub-seasonal range

Sub-seasonal range structure

The sub-seasonal range ensemble is run daily based on 00UTC data.  The products cover the period up to Day46 and are derived from a 100 member ensemble with a control and has a resolution of 36km.   The sub-seasonal range ENS is independent of the medium range ENS and has it's own control and sub-seasonal range model climate (ER-M-climate).

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Re-forecasts provide an sub-seasonal range climate (ER-M-climate) and associated probability distribution functions (pdfs) for several variables.  The latest sub-seasonal range ensemble forecasts and the associated probability density functions can be compared with the ER-M-Climate.  The differences between the two are used as the basis of model products any model drift is effectively removed. 

Combating Model Drift

Drift of model calculations begins to be significant after 10 days of coupled integrations.  It displays similar patterns to seasonal forecasting after 6 months of integrations, but with less amplitude.

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Fig5.2-1: Example of plumes for Dublin.  Extended Range forecast, DT00UTC 1 January 2018.  The plumes show increasing spread of forecasted values of 850hPa temperatures and 500hPa geopotential height within the extended range period.



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