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Anomaly Correlation Coefficient
ECMWF primary headline score for ensemble control forecast (ex-HRES) (ACC)
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient gives a measure of the effectiveness of the model by showing when the ACC of 500 hPa height falls below a threshold. ACC is one of the most widely used measures in the verification of spacial fields.
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Current Anomaly Correlation Coefficient diagram.
Continuous ranked probability score (CRPS)
ECMWF primary headline score for medium range
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- CRPSS = 1 the forecast has perfect skill compared to climatology.
- CRPSS = 0 the forecast has no skill compared to climatology.
- CRPSS = a negative value the forecast is less accurate than climatology.
Discrete Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS-D)
ECMWF Primary headline score for extended range
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- RPSS = 1 the forecast has perfect skill compared to the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast beneficial;
- RPSS = 0 the forecast has no skill compared to the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast has no benefit over climatology;
- RPSS = a negative value the forecast is less accurate than the reference (observations, analyses or climatology) - forecast misleading.
Stable equity error in probability space (1-SEEPS)
ECMWF supplementary headline score
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This score for the extra-tropics is a supplementary headline score for the ECMWF Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES).
EFI ROC skill (10m wind at day4)
ECMWF supplementary headline score
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Current EFI ROC skill diagram.
Fraction of large CRPS (2m temperature)
ECMWF complementary headline score
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Current fraction of large CRPS diagram.
(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)
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