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 Fig6.2.3-1:  The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) measures the skill of a forecast relative to chance.  Here it considers observations and forecasts of ≥1mm measured in a day (in effect a rain/no rain verification) at each station during 2016 and averaged over the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere.  HRES in Red, ensemble control (CTRL) in purple, Ensemble mean (EM) in green, An individual ensemble member (PF) in cyan.  Note the Equitable Threat Score for ensemble control (CTRL) and HRESare very similar, but almost a day better than any individual member (e.g. the skill of ensemble control (CTRL) at Day7 is as good as that of an individual perturbed forecast PF at Day6, or the skill HRES at Day3 is as good as an individual perturbed forecast PF at day 2).  Note at Day2 the HRES has a higher skill than the ensemble control (CTRL) but by Day10 both HRES and ensemble control (CTRL) have similar (low) skill.   In these graphs HRES has 9Km resolution, the medium range ensemble has 18Km resolution.



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