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Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical. With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output where shown in the diagrams. At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.
Vertical profiles window
Vertical profiles window supplements the tools already available (Probe, Time-series, Cities, EPSgram) on ecCharts and elsewhere. It provides information about the vertical structure of the forecast model atmosphere for any location (as selected by the Probe Tool) and any time (as selected by the Time Navigator). Currently validity times are limited to 6 hour steps up to T+120.
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- From Charts menu, select All points based products.
- Select Medium Range and Point based products. Select Vertical Profiles icon.
- Select date/time of forecast base time and date/time of forecast valid time.
- Select location, either by name or by lat/long.
Vertical Profile display
A single display comprises the following elements:
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The vertical profile uses every model level in the lower troposphere up to about 700mb, and every other level at higher levels. The model levels from each ensemble member are all set to the ensemble mean pressure values before the spread metrics (e.g. 25th and 75th percentiles etc) are computed.
Hodograph
Horizontal Winds on Pressure levels
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Fig8.1.8-4: An example of ensemble and winds plotted as hodographs. Depending on the case, these can be very informative (e.g. the consistency of significant shear among ensemble members). This example shows significant shear from SE'ly winds at low levels to SW'ly winds at mid-tropospheric levels to W'ly winds in the upper troposphere.
MUCAPE and MUCIN diagram
The MUCAPE and MUCIN diagram shows the distribution of the most unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE) for three different categories of Convective Inhibition (MUCIN) in box and whisker format.
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MUCAPE is different in that it is bounded between 0 and some large, non-infinite, value that depends on atmospheric structure. So MUCAPE is stored in a different manner that does not include missing values.
Example Vertical Profile Displays
Vertical Profile and ecCharts of MUCIN and MUCAPE
Fig8.1.8-6: Vertical profile at Mao (Mahon), Menorca, Spain (arrowed) with MUCIN and MUCAPE, all from ecCharts: T+108 VT 18UTC 12 Aug 2020, DT 00UTC 8 Aug 2020.
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Other cases will of course have different characteristics.
Vertical Profile and ecChart of Probability of Convective Precipitation
Fig8.1.8-7: A forecast vertical profile for Premuda, Croatia T+90 VT 06UTC 18 Aug 2020, DT 00UTC 14 Aug 2020 . The corresponding ecChart shows the forecast probability for convective precipitation (same model runs).
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It is wise to consider both the probability of convective precipitation charts and the vertical profiles together rather than using either alone to assess the possibility of active convective cells.
Vertical Profile Sequence showing variation of MUCIN and MUCAPE through 24 hours
Fig8.1.8-8: Sequence of forecast vertical profiles for Brindisi, Italy illustrating the variation in MUCIN and consequent availability of MUCAPE through a full 24h diurnal cycle in which the structure of the atmosphere above the lowest layers remains largely unchanged. Here, for simplicity, MUCIN is defined as: low MUCIN<50J/kg, moderate 50J/kg<MUCIN<200J/kg, large MUCIN>200J/kg.
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Although this case does not definitively highlight active convection, the hodographs indicate some vertical shear through the model atmosphere which would be conducive to organised deep moist convection if large MUCAPE were available and were released.
Forecast vertical profiles in the vicinity of a mobile cold front
Fig8.1.8-9: The ensemble forecast frontal zones from the cyclone database products (example) T+120hr VT:00UTC 22 Aug 2020, DT:00UTC 17 Aug 2020. Inset shows magnified area around Denmark. Animation of cyclone database products allows an assessment of the developing spread and changing intensity of frontal features.
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IFS model levels for: HRES, ENS (137). Note: every model level is used in the lower troposphere up to about 700mb, and only every other level higher up.
(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)
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