Page History

...

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

Lightning

The Lightning Flash Density forecast products are available on ecCharts and can be accessed via the Layers dropdown menu. 

...

In the example in Fig8.1.13-1, values for Bordeaux (location shown by the pin) are given in the probe display at the top.  HRES forecast shows less than 1 strike per hour within the surrounding 100km² average during the previous 6 hours.  However, ensemble forecasts give a probability for the same period of 45% for an average of more than 2 strikes per hour, and 80% for an average of more than 0.1 strikes per hour during the same period.

Considerations when using Lightning charts

The parametrization of total lightning flash density uses the following quantities diagnosed from the ECMWF convection scheme:

...

Fig8.1.13-7: Seasonal mean lightning flash density for months SON from 15 years of observations (left) and from 10 year-long 80km IFS simulations (right).  The scale is in flashes/km²/year.  Agreement for other seasons (not shown) is much better.

Additional Sources of Information

(Note: In older material there may be references to issues that have subsequently been addressed)

...

Read more on a lightning parameterization scheme for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System.

(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)