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Teleconnections
Circulation patterns like NAO are often associated with global teleconnections through propagation of Rossby wave trains. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) and pronounced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events have been found to enhance the predictability and skill of forecast circulations in the North Atlantic/European area.
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Fig8.2.8-3: Variation of the MJO index bivariate correlation with forecast lead-time for two older ECMWF model cycles (40r1 and 40r3). Beyond Day20 correlation falls below 0.7. By Day 27 it falls below 0.6, implying marginal skill.
MJO Teleconnection Example
The forecast based on 00UTC 12 Jan 2024 illustrates the tele-connection effect of tropical deep convection over the Indian Ocean upon subsequent downstream developments of NAO+ type over the North Atlantic/Europe.
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Fig8.2.8-6: The Euro-Atlantic weather regime presented in histogram form reflecting the regime projection diagrams (Fig8.2.8-5) above. The regime is generally NAO-(green) 15-21 Jan but is forecast to evolve into predominantly NAO+ (blue) by 11-17 Jan.
Additional sources of information
(Note: In older material there may be references to issues that have subsequently been addressed)
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(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)
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