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The IFS models the dynamics of the atmosphere and the physical processes that occur, and also other processes that influence the weather e.g. atmospheric composition, surface energy fluxes, the marine environment and processes at the atmosphere/surface interface (then scroll down to soil/surface section). Several configurations of the atmospheric model are used, each tailored towards a specific aim:
- Medium Range ensemble to investigate detail and uncertainty in the forecast during the first 15 days.
- Sub-seasonal ensemble to give probability of general conditions to 46 days ahead.
- Seasonal ensemble to give probability of general conditions at longer ranges.
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Some major model changes were made to the IFS with the introduction of Cy49r1 in October 2024. These are:
- Medium range ensemble forecast system
- The name of both the HRES and the unperturbed control member of the ensemble forecast is replaced by Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES).
- Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES), or equally any individual perturbed ensemble member, may be considered as a possible detailed solution during the first 15 days.
- HRES and the Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical with the same unperturbed analyses.
- The Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output runs on the schedule of HRES in Cy48 and earlier. It runs before the medium range ensemble starts. It is labelled HRES for the convenience of users but the name will be withdrawn in a future update cycle.
- Unchanged are:
- the horizontal resolution remains at 9 Km.
- the vertical resolution remains at 137 model levels.
- the number of ensemble members remains at 50 members plus the control member.
- the medium range ensembles are run daily:
- Day0 to Day15 based on 00UTC and 12UTC data
- Day-0 to Day6 based on 06UTC and 18UTC data.Results from these runs are:
- used in Early cut off analysis (SCDA) and Long window data analysis (LWDA).
- disseminated T+0 to T+72
- documentation gives details of Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) products and dissemination schedules.
- documentation gives details of medium range ensemble products and dissemination schedules.
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