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Low level moisture is important for triggering convection yet may be imprecisely predicted by the models.  Users should review the moisture content within the low-level inflow to areas with potential for significant convective development.  This can be done by comparing forecast values with available observations upstream (e.g. by comparing upstream dew points or vertical profiles).  Users should review the location of convective release and consider whether there is a possibility of deeper, more active convection.  See also examples of convection problems.

Forecast charts:

• available on ecCharts and web open charts:
  • MUCAPE and MUCIN (from Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES)).
  • MUCAPE Extreme Forecast Index and MUCAPE-shear Extreme Forecast Index. 
  • probability of MUCAPE and probability of MUCAPE-shear above or below a user-defined threshold.
  • 24h 4-value-maximum MUCAPE and MUCAPE-shear from M-Climate at various user-defined percentiles.

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