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Verification of the EFI has been done using synoptic observations over Europe.  An extreme event is taken as having occurred if the observation exceeds the 95th percentile of the observed climate for that station for the given time of year (calculated from a 15-year sample).  The observed climatology is used as a reference point because here it is the effectiveness of the forecast relative to the model climate (M-climate) that is being assessed.  Verification has been performed for three directly represented parameters: 2m mean temperature, 10m mean wind speed, and total precipitation (Fig8.1.9.8-1). 

In addition, and in contrast to these three parameters, the EFIs for MUCAPE and for MUCAPE-shear (Fig8.1.9.8-2) are verified against the observed convective hazards and not against observations of these parameters.  MUCAPE  MUCAPE and  MUCAPE-shear are used for forecasting severe convection.  If MUCAPE and MUCAPE-shear are anomalous compared to their respective climatologies, severe convective hazards are likely to happen.

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