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There are 137 model levels for medium range ensemble members and the ensemble controlEnsemble Control Forecast.  Every model level is used in the lower troposphere up to about 700mb, and only every other level higher up.

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Fig8.1.8-2: An example of ecCharts vertical profile output.  Note: The diagram is output from Cy48r when the resolution of HRES (~9km) differed from the resolution of medium range ensemble (~18km) and so HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast differ.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single trace on the vertical profile.

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Note: The diagram is output from Cy48r when the resolution of HRES (~9km) differed from the resolution of medium range ensemble (~18km) and so HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast differ.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single trace on the vertical profile.

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Note: The diagram is output from Cy48r when the resolution of HRES (~9km) differed from the resolution of medium range ensemble (~18km) and so HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast differ.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single trace on the vertical profile.

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Note: The diagram is output from Cy48r when the resolution of HRES (~9km) differed from the resolution of medium range ensemble (~18km) and so HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast differ.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single trace on the vertical profile.

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In the case shown in Fig8.1.8-7 many ensemble members suggest MUCIN can be fairly easily overcome (MUCIN <50J/kg)  releasing quite vigorous convection (large MUCAPE values - ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast ~3500J/kg, ~3000J/kg).   The probability of precipitation chart shows that <35% of ensemble members are producing showers totalling >1mm in the period 00UTC to 06UTC.   Nevertheless the MUCIN/MUCAPE diagram suggests that quite active convection with heavier showers has been quite possible during the preceding 6hr period given sufficient energy input to overcome MUCIN - this might be dynamical or mechanical uplift. As this was night time it seems more likely that solar heating during the morning will overcome the MUCIN leading to active convective cells.

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Note: The diagram is output from Cy48r when the resolution of HRES (~9km) differed from the resolution of medium range ensemble (~18km) and so HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast differ.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single trace on the vertical profile.

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Fig8.1.8-10: An example of forecast vertical profiles in the vicinity of a mobile cold front crossing Denmark, T+120hr VT:00UTC 22 Aug 2020, DT:00UTC 17 Aug 2020.  There are a range of forecast positions of the front among the ensemble solutions but HRES (thick solid) and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast (thick dotted) both position the front approximately between Copenhagen and Odense.  The East/West section through this zone illustrates the differences in the structure of the model atmospheres, particularly in the spread of the ensemble temperatures and dewpoints. The pale blue colouring approximately encloses the range of ensemble positions for the front.  

Note: The diagram is output from Cy48r when the resolution of HRES (~9km) differed from the resolution of medium range ensemble (~18km) and so HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast differ.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical and their results are a single trace on the vertical profile.

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Some other interesting features can be identified; mostly the HRES and ensemble control Ensemble Control Forecast runs (single thick lines) are representative of the ensemble, but in some respects they are not - e.g. the control has anomalously warm low level air well ahead of the front (55N 15E).

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Read more information on “Using ECMWF's new ensemble vertical profiles”.

Read about the vertical profile product (P39-44).

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