Page History

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

Lightning

The Lightning Flash Density forecast products are available on ecCharts and can be accessed via the Layers dropdown menu. 

...

Fig8.1.13-1(right): ecCharts display of probability of lightning flash density (here >0.1 strikes/100km²/h average during the previous 6h).

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

In the example in Fig8.1.13-1, values for Bordeaux (location shown by the pin) are given in the probe display at the top.  HRES forecast shows less than 1 strike per hour within the surrounding 100km² average during the previous 6 hours.  However, ensemble forecasts give a probability for the same period of 45% for an average of more than 2 strikes per hour, and 80% for an average of more than 0.1 strikes per hour during the same period.

...