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Table of Contents

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

Tropical Cyclone Diagrams - new TCs

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Fig8.1.16.2-5: ecChart tropical storm strike probability chart from ensemble with 100m winds (m/s) from HRES for T+96 verifying at 00UTC 12 January 2018.  Forecast from ensemble, data time 00UTC 8 January 2018.  With effect from Cy49r1, HRES

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.


RSMC official forecasts of tropical cyclones take precedence

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