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Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output where shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

Derivation of 2m Temperatures

Model output of 2m temperature is a diagnostic.  It is not a direct output from the atmospheric model.  Forecast screen level variables are not directly evaluated but are determined via knowledge of the the lowest model level temperature (at 10m) and the "skin" temperature of the underlying surface.  In turn the skin temperature is determined via the land surface scheme HTESSEL, or the lake surface scheme FLake, or the sea-surface temperature (through NEMO). 

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FLake is currently not used directly in re-forecasts and consequently M-climate temperatures can be error prone over and adjacent to inland lakes, particularly if these are large (e.g. Lake Superior).  This can affect Extreme Forecast Index(EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) values.

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