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Table of Contents

Note: HRES and and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output where shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

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Ensemble Control (ex-HRES) output (15 days forecast period)

  • Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is shown to give "deterministic" snapshots of the forecast evolution for various combinations of parameters.  It is important not to be beguiled into treating Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) charts as definitive, despite the apparent detail.  The Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) should only be considered as one member of the medium range ensemble.
    Charts available:
    • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 10days forecast lead-time.
      • Charts available(atmospheric):
        • MSLP and wind speed at 850hPa
        • MSLP and wind at 200hPa
        • MSLP and Rain
        • MSLP and 500-1000hPa thickness
        • Vorticity and wind at 700hPa
        • Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels
        • Wind and geopotential at various pressure levels
        • Wind and relative humidity at various pressure levels
        • Geopotential 500hPa and temperature at 850hPa
        • 2m temperature and 30m winds
        • 2m temperature and 10m winds
        • Total cloud cover
        • Indices (CAPE/K-index/Totalx)
      • Charts available(oceanic):
        • Significant wave height and mean direction
        • Mean wave period and direction
        • Total swell: Significant wave height and mean direction
        • Total swell: Mean wave period and direction
        • Significant wind wave height and mean direction
        • Mean wind wave period and direction
    • Imagery charts:
      • IR and WV imagery charts - these are derived from the structure of the IFS model atmosphere and provide a useful comparison with satellite imagery and analysed and forecast upper air flow patterns.  They may be particularly useful for seeing whether the model is replicating small scale features in the flow. (Example IR chart, Example WV chart). 

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Medium range ensemble (15 day forecast period)

  • Medium range ensemble output is shown for individual ensemble members for a few parameters.  More importantly, ensemble output showing a selection of individual and combined parameters is presented in a probabilistic or multi-valued format.  The medium range ensemble consists of 50 members plus one control member.  Charts available:

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Sub-seasonal range ensemble (16-46 day forecast period)

Sub-seasonal range ensemble products are derived from an extension of the normal 15 day ensemble twice per week on Mondays and Thursdays and act as a bridge in time between ensemble forecasts and seasonal forecasts.  The charts available cover week-long periods (i.e. 7-day periods after the data time of the forecast run, going up to day46).   The sub-seasonal range ensemble consists of 100 members plus one control member.
Charts available:

  • Weekly mean anomaly charts - to highlight areas where mean forecast values depart significantly from the ER-M-climate for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
  • Weekly probability anomaly charts - to highlight the probability of being above the ER-M-climate mean for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
  • Weekly probability charts - to show the probability the weekly mean anomalies will be in lower and upper quantiles of the ER-M-climate for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
  • Weekly averages of the monthly forecast ensemble for several variables on a single chart. (Example chart).
  • Tropical cyclone probability charts (including genesis) - to indicate tropical cyclone threat and intensity worldwide and compare with tropical cyclone frequency and intensity in the ER-M-climate. (Example chart).
  • Time-longitude (Hovmoeller) diagram of the observed and forecast ensemble mean anomaly of 500hPa or 1000hPa geopotential (in dam) in the extra-tropics - to show persistence and progression of disturbances and potential interaction between upper and lower features. (Example diagram).
  • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index metrics and Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram - to show recent and forecast evolution and uncertainty of MJO features. (Example MJO index metrics Hovmoeller diagram, example Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram).

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