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  • Different users get different benefits from the same forecast, depending on the costs/losses involved in their decisions.
  • Difference can be large – no benefit to some users, but high value to others.
  • Ensemble forecasts give generally higher value, especially because users can choose probability threshold p* relevant for their particular situation (so the Cost/Loss model generally benefits a wider range of users).
  • Skill scores show a single number for a given forecasting system – in some cases this can be interpreted as average value over a set of users.


Further reading : ECMWF Newsletter Number 80 – Summer 1998. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/1998/14644-newsletter-no80-summer-1998.pdfon obtaining economic value from the EPS page 8



Statistical Post-processing –– Model Output Statistics (MOS)

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