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  • Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES), or equally a forecast from any individual ensemble member, may be considered as a possible detailed solution during the first 15 days.

  • Medium range ensemble consists of 50 members to investigate uncertainty and variability of detail in the forecast during the first 15 days.
  • Sub-seasonal range 46 day ensemble consists of 100 members and the unperturbed control member to give probability of general conditions at longer ranges.
  • Seasonal range 7 month or 13 month ensemble of 50 members and the unperturbed control member to give probability of general conditions at longer ranges.

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