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Creation of
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SUBS-M-Climate
The ERSUBS-M-Climate is derived from a set of sub-seasonal range re-forecasts created using the same calendar start dates over several years for data times either side of the time of the sub-seasonal ensemble run itself. The re-forecast runs are at the same resolution as the sub-seasonal medium range run itself and run over the 46-day sub-seasonal range ENS period.
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- sub-seasonal range forecast verification metrics are based on the re-forecasts.
- re-forecasts allow computation of the ERSUBS-M-climate which allows actual forecasts to be converted into an anomaly format. Forecasts in terms of anomalies relative to a model climate (rather than relative to the observed climatology) mean that some calibration for model bias and drift into the products is incorporated.
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In total, each set of re-forecasts consists of 20 years x 3 runs x 11 ensemble members = 660 re-forecast values. These are available for each forecast parameter, forecast lead-time, calendar start date, location, at forecast intervals of 6 hours. These are used to define the ERSUBS-M-climate.
A lower number of re-forecasts than for evaluating M-climate is justified because the tails are less important and should not be so prone to having a reduced sample size.
The ERSUBS-M-climate is used in association with the sub-seasonal range ensemble forecast:
- to present the day15 to day46 ensemble meteograms with the sub-seasonal range climate (ERSUBS-M-climate).
- to highlight significant anomalies of forecast 2m temperature, wind speed, cloudiness and precipitation from the norm for a given location and time of year.
Different reference periods for M-Climate and
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SUBS-M-Climate
ECMWF uses different reference periods but essentially the same re-forecast runs to build the M-Climate and the ERSUBS-M-Climate. The key difference is that those runs are grouped and used in different ways:
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