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Sub-seasonal range output

The output is rather different from the shorter period output of medium range ensemble products.  It provides a more general overview of the forecast up to Day46. It consists of an ensemble of 100 members plus one control member and is run every day based only upon 00UTC data.

Output focuses mainly on the week-to-week changes in the weather rather than attempting to give unsupportable detail on individual days.  Output is mostly in the form of anomalies relative to SUBS-M-climate and is mainly shown as 7-day means for calendar weeks Monday-Sunday.   Specialised products for the sub-seasonal range also include information on potential tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the coming month.

Products are six charts of the 7 day (weekly) means of the forecast daily ensemble means (including re-forecast products).  Sub-seasonal range 7-day mean forecast chart products extend to day46.  

Availability

Sub-seasonal range output is available:

• at 20:00 UTC for forecast products daily.
• at 21:00 UTC for re-forecasts on 1/3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17/19/21/23/25/27/29/31 (excluding 29 February) of each month.

Forecast time ranges and resolutions

Graphical products

For each point of the chart the atmospheric variables (e.g. 2m temperature, surface temperature, total precipitation, mean sea level pressure) are averaged values over week-long periods.  

Additional sources of information

More information on products available from the atmospheric model ensemble, sub-seasonal forecast (Set VI - ENS sub-seasonal) are available on the ECMWF website.

(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)