Page History

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Comparing Cy48r1 and Cy49r1 tropical cyclone forecasts

With the introduction Cy49r1 there has been an advantageous increase in the variability of the evolution and track of tropical cyclones.  This is driven by the increase in the resolution of trajectories of the EDA members and representation of model uncertainties using SPP.

Fig8.1.16.3-5:  Comparison of mean position and mean absolute intensity error from analysed position and intensity (central pressure) achieved by the previous (Cy48r1) and current (Cy49r1) ensemble control members. The error of central pressure, and hence intensity, shows a marked improvement in Cy49r1.  

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• Ensemble mean TC track and depth exhibit similar skill levels in the two cycles (with a hint of minor, non-significant improvements for some lead times in Cy49r1)
• Up to about day 4 tracks in Cy49r1 are slightly over-spread; in Cy48r1 they are not.
• Up to about day 5 the spread in depths is markedly better in Cy49r1. Whilst this still falls well short of matching the depth error, it is likely due to model resolution limitations, at least in part. 

  
  

Analysis Aspects

Interpretation of Increments near Tropical Cyclones

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