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• High impact considerations

  • Cloud and freezing fog strongly influence the energy fluxes into and from the snowpack.  The IFS may not correctly capture or forecast the extent or thickness of cloud.   It is very important to consider the possible formation, persistence or clearance of cloud and to assess the possible changes in energy transfer between cloud and snowpack.  Thick cloud at any level will reduce solar radiation, but low cloud could be warmer than the underlying snow surface resulting in a net increase in downwards long wave radiation.

  • Marine convection and associated precipitation developed by the IFS may not penetrate sufficiently far inland.  Snow showers can drift even further inland due to the lower fall speed of snowflakes.

  • Model forecast snowfall might increase the area or depth of snow cover incorrectly.  Partial cover of snow may become full cover as the accumulated model snow depth becomes >10cm.  This means "tiles" in HTESSEL describing land surfaces may incorrectly cease to be used.
  • Snow may accumulate then melt (e.g. with rain, or as as a warm front advances over a cold area).

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• Snow temperature considerations

  • Variation in the surface reflectance (snow-albedo) can influence surface heat flux and skin temperatures (by 1°C-4°C).  Fresh (white) snow has high albedo reflecting much of the incoming radiation.  Dirty or older (greyer) snow absorbs more radiation with greater heat flux into the snowpack.  The sun's elevation at high latitudes is limited (and non-existent in winter) which reduces the availability of solar radiation to the snow surface.  
  • Snow surfaces are likely to melt a little more readily in forests as the heat flux at the snow/atmosphere interface is rather larger than with exposed snow.
  • Phase changes can cause a delay in warming during melting or sublimation of snow.  In IFS, airborne snow tends to sublimate much more readily than the undisturbed snow on the ground.
  • If ground surface temperatures are above 0°C, shallow surface snow often takes too long to melt.  This can have an adverse impact on albedo and radiation fluxes.
  • Thermal properties of the snow can cause heat and moisture transfers to be effectively de-coupled.  Snow, especially new dry snow, is a good thermal insulator.
  • Snow depths may reduce gradually because the density of the snow has increased through compaction in the model (and also in reality) as the days progress.

  • Forest snow night time temperatures fall too low.  Even if the forest is dominant, the vertical interpolation to evaluate T2m is done as for an exposed snow tile (because verifying SYNOP stations are always in a clearing).  In reality, forest generatedturbulence maintains turbulent exchange over the clearing and prevents extreme cooling.

  • The direction and strength of the low level winds can have a strong effect on snowfall:

    • Surface wind from land - temperatures can be lower and snowfall deeper.

    • Surface wind from sea – temperatures slightly higher and snow more sleety, at least at lower levels.

  • Forecast 2m temperatures over deep snow:
    • have good agreement with observations between −15°C and 0°C.
    • tend to be too warm by around 3-5°C compared to observations when T2m <-15°C.   Large night time errors of forecast temperatures, even by as much as 10°C too warm, are more likely under clear skies, even when this has been correctly simulated by the model. 
    • have a relatively constant cold bias during the day of ~1.5°C compared to observations.
    • the amplitude of the forecast diurnal cycle of T2m underestimates the amplitude of the observed diurnal cycle by between ~10% to 30%.  Forecast minima tend to be warmer and daytime maxima colder than observations. 
    • verification of temperatures can be difficult.  This is due to variations in the height that temperature observations are made.  Some countries and locations:
      • maintain the sensors 2m above the snow surface, adjusted after every fall of snow.
      • have sensors higher than 2m above the ground to ensure measurement of air temperature throughout the year even after large accumulations of snow.  High snow depths in late winter mean a short distance between snow surface and the sensor, while the sensor will be in a greater distance than usual to the ground surface during the warm period of the year.  See Fig2.1.4.4-5. 

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