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Sub-seasonal
range output forecast
The output is rather different from the shorter period output of medium range ensemble products.
ItIt provides a more general overview of the forecast up to
Day46. ItDay 46.
The sub-seasonal forecast suite consists of an ensemble of 100 members plus one control member and is run every day based only upon 00UTC data.
OutputThe output focuses mainly on the week-to-week changes in the weather rather than attempting to give unsupportable detail on individual days.
Output is mostly in the form of anomalies relative toIt is presented as forecast 7-day Monday to Sunday means of the anomalies relative to SUBS-M-climate
and is mainly shown as 7-day means for calendar weeks Monday-Sunday. Specialisedfor the corresponding Monday to Sunday forecast week.
Specialised products for the sub-seasonal range also include information
onon potential tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the coming month.
Sub-seasonal forecast output
Starting each Monday, a Monday-Sunday forecast period is maintained by all the sub-seasonal forecasts made each day during the following seven days. Thus the products of each sub-seasonal forecast may be easily compared with previous forecasts. The same Monday-Sunday periods are also used to produce
Products are six charts of the 7 day (weekly) means of the forecast daily ensemble means (includingre-forecast products
). Sub-seasonal range 7-day mean forecast chart products extend to day46.Availability
Sub-seasonal range output is available:
- at 20:00 UTC for forecast products daily.
- at 21:00 UTC for re-forecasts on 1/3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17/19/21/23/25/27/29/31 (excluding 29 February) of each month.
Forecast time ranges and resolutions
Forecast time ranges
Resolution
Monday
0-168/168-336/336-504/504-672/672-840/840-1008
- 0.4° x 0.4° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
- On model (Octahedral) O320 grid (global or sub-area)
- Spectral components (TCO319) for upper-air fields (global area only)
Tuesday
144-312/312-480/480-648/648-816/816-984
Wednesday
120-288/288-456/456-624/624-792/792-960
Thursday
96-264/264-432/432-600/600-768/768-936/936-1104
Friday
72-240/240-408/408-576/576-744/744-912/912-1080
Saturday
48-216/216-384/384-552/552-720/720-888/888-1056
Sunday
24-192/192-360/360-528/528-696/696-864/864-1032
Graphical products
For each point of the chart the atmospheric variables (e.g. 2m temperature, surface temperature, total precipitation, mean sea level pressure) are averaged values over week.
It is presented as forecast 7-day Monday to Sunday means of the anomalies, relative to SUBS-M-climate, for the corresponding Monday to Sunday forecast week.
Differing forecast periods are selected from each sub-synoptic run to keep the 7 day forecast period constant at Monday-Sunday to allow easy comparison from run to run (See Table 1)
There are no forecasts for:
- Week 0 on days other than Mondays because the sub-seasonal forecast period is less than a full seven days.
- Week 6 on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays because the sub-seasonal forecast extends only to Day 46.
Monday - Sunday Week 0 | Monday - Sunday Week 1 | Monday - Sunday Week 2 | Monday - Sunday Week 3 | Monday - Sunday Week 4 | Monday - Sunday Week 5 | Monday - Sunday Week 6 | |
Day that sub-seasonal forecast made |
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Monday | Day0 - Day7 (T+0-168) | Day7 - Day14 (T+168-336) | Day14 - Day21 (T+336-504) | Day21 - Day28 (T+504-672) | Day28 - Day35 (T+672-840) | Day35 - Day42 (T+840-1008) | --- |
Tuesday | --- | Day6 - Day13 (T+144-312) | Day13 - Day20 (T+312-480 | Day20 - Day27 (T+480-648) | Day27 - Day34 (T+648-816) | Day34 - Day41 (T+816-984) | --- |
Wednesday | --- | Day5 - Day12 (T+120-288) | Day12 - Day19 (T+288-456) | Day19 - Day26 (T+456-624) | Day26 - Day33 (T+624-792) | Day33 - Day40 (T+792-960) | --- |
Thursday | --- | Day4 - Day11 (T+96-264) | Day11 - Day18 (T+264-432) | Day18 - Day25 (T+432-600) | Day25 - Day32 (T+600-768) | Day32 - Day39 (T+768-936) | Day39 - Day46 (T+936-1032) |
Friday | --- | Day3 - Day10 (T+72-240) | Day10 - Day17 (T+240-408) | Day17 - Day24 (T+408-576) | Day24 - Day31 (T+576-744) | Day31 - Day38 (T+744-912) | Day38 - Day45 (T+912-1008) |
Saturday | --- | Day2 - Day9 (T+48-216) | Day9 - Day16 (T+216-384) | Day16 - Day23 (T+384-552) | Day23 - Day30 (T+552-720) | Day30 - Day37 (T+720-888) | Day37 - Day44 (T+888-984) |
Sunday | --- | Day1 - Day8 (T+24-192) | Day8 - Day15 (T+192-360) | Day15 - Day22 (T+360-528) | Day22 - Day29 (T+528-696) | Day29 - Day36 (T+696-864) | Day36 - Day43 (T+864-960) |
Table 1: The Monday - Sunday period is preserved by starting the Monday-Sunday forecast period at a time step 24 hours earlier on each sequential forecast run. See Table 2 for an illustrative example.
Monday - Sunday Week 0 | Monday - Sunday Week 1 | Monday - Sunday Week 2 | Monday - Sunday Week 3 | Monday - Sunday Week 4 | Monday - Sunday Week 5 | Monday - Sunday Week 6 | |
Forecast made on Mon 03.02.25 | 00UTC 03.02.25 to 00UTC 10.02.25 | 00UTC 10.02.25 to 00UTC 17.2.25 | 00UTC 17.02.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 | 00UTC 24.02.25 to 00UTC 03.03.25 | 00UTC 03.03.25 to 00UTC 10.03.25 | 00UTC 10.03.25 to 00UTC 17.03.25 | Not Available |
| Forecast made on Tue 04.02.25 | Not Available | 00UTC 10.02.25 to 00UTC 17.2.25 | 00UTC 17.02.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 | 00UTC 24.02.25 to 00UTC 03.03.25 | 00UTC 03.03.25 to 00UTC 10.03.25 | 00UTC 10.03.25 to 00UTC 17.03.25 | Not Available |
| Forecast made on Wed 05.02.25 | Not Available | 00UTC 10.02.25 to 00UTC 17.2.25 | 00UTC 17.02.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 | 00UTC 24.02.25 to 00UTC 03.03.25 | 00UTC 03.03.25 to 00UTC 10.03.25 | 00UTC 10.03.25 to 00UTC 17.03.25 | Not Available |
| Forecast made on Thu 06.02.25 | Not Available | 00UTC 10.02.25 to 00UTC 17.2.25 | 00UTC 17.02.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 | 00UTC 24.02.25 to 00UTC 03.03.25 | 00UTC 03.03.25 to 00UTC 10.03.25 | 00UTC 10.03.25 to 00UTC 17.03.25 | 00UTC 17.03.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 |
| Forecast made on Fri 07.02.25 | Not Available | 00UTC 10.02.25 to 00UTC 17.2.25 | 00UTC 17.02.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 | 00UTC 24.02.25 to 00UTC 03.03.25 | 00UTC 03.03.25 to 00UTC 10.03.25 | 00UTC 10.03.25 to 00UTC 17.03.25 | 00UTC 17.03.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 |
| Forecast made on Sat 08.02.25 | Not Available | 00UTC 10.02.25 to 00UTC 17.2.25 | 00UTC 17.02.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 | 00UTC 24.02.25 to 00UTC 03.03.25 | 00UTC 03.03.25 to 00UTC 10.03.25 | 00UTC 10.03.25 to 00UTC 17.03.25 | 00UTC 17.03.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 |
Forecast made on Sun 09.02.25 | Not Available | 00UTC 10.02.25 to 00UTC 17.2.25 | 00UTC 17.02.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 | 00UTC 24.02.25 to 00UTC 03.03.25 | 00UTC 03.03.25 to 00UTC 10.03.25 | 00UTC 10.03.25 to 00UTC 17.03.25 | 00UTC 17.03.25 to 00UTC 24.03.25 |
Table 2: Illustrative example of sub-synoptic output based on a week in February 2025. The Monday - Sunday period is preserved by using an earlier time step to start the Monday-Sunday forecast period on each sequential forecast run. See Table 1.
Fig8.2-1: Example sequence of sub-seasonal forecasts. The same Mon-Sun 7 day period is output from each sub-seasonal forecast run for ease of comparison. In the example (Mon 10 to Sun 17 March 2025), Europe is consistently shown with a warm anomaly against SUBS-M-climate. However, the runs on Thu, Fri and Sat indicate much warmer in Central Europe but the run on 9 Mar shows less warmth.
Forecast resolution
- 0.4° x 0.4° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
- On model (Octahedral) O320 grid (global or sub-area)
- Spectral components (TCO319) for upper-air fields (global area only)
Availability
Sub-seasonal range output is available:
- at 20:00 UTC for forecast products each day.
- at 21:00 UTC for re-forecasts on 1/3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17/19/21/23/25/27/29/31 (excluding 29 February) of each month.
Additional sources of information
More information on products available from the atmospheric model ensemble, sub-seasonal forecast (Set VI - ENS sub-seasonal) are available on the ECMWF website.
(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)
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