Page History

...

None of the parameters give information on the cloud and precipitation.  High CAPE released within a dry atmosphere may give only little amounts of cloud.  For heavy showery rain areas or severe storms it is necessary to have moisture available at the base of convection and preferably throughout the troposphere.  Generally IFS forecasts of rain areas prove helpful in giving this information.  However, release of the instability depends on CIN being overcome or else on some dynamic uplift higher in the atmosphere.  Also, additional moisture at low levels (e.g. by sea breeze) can bring development of significant showers - see section on the impact of incorrect moisture.

The section on Convective cloud processes and precipitation gives more detail.

...