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Table of Contents

Model output associated with extreme convection 

 Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) tends to over-forecast extreme convection, especially in the maritime tropics.  Forecast rapid vertical motion can result in spurious quasi-circular waves (sometimes rings) in convective precipitation fields. These gravity waves gradually spread outwards.  They can even move well upwind, giving a false impression of an eastward-moving trough.  The source of these false features should be identified and the effects discarded from forecasts.  Changes to the IFS moist physics in 2019 have reduced but not entirely removed this effect. 

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