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Fig8.3.5-5: Reliability diagrams for 2m temperature based on July starts of the long-range the seasonal forecasts for months 4-6. 

• left for the tropics - a slight tendency towards over-confidence, more especially where forecasting that this event (warm anomalies) will happen.
• right for Europe - a tendency towards over-confidence, though the sample size for high confidence forecasts is small, making the plot noisy.

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Fig8.3.5-6: Reliability diagrams for rain based on July starts of the long-range seasonal forecasts for months 4-6:

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Fig8.3.5-7: ROC diagrams for Europe based on July starts of the long-range seasonal forecasts for months 4-6:

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